If you’re like me and couldn’t care less about fantasy football, you probably prefer survivor pools and pick’em leagues. At the time of writing this, I’m sitting in the top three in a league of 39 people with a record of 88–77. I’m going to start posting my picks here, and hopefully I can help some of you along the way.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (+2.5)

Bills -2.5 Starting off hot, I got this one wrong. I am sick of convincing myself the Bills are good. They’re not. Josh Allen is just elite.

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)

Ravens -13.5 I generally go by the rule that if the spread is larger than 10, I go with the favorite. However, Ravens are at home, and I don’t know if the Jets can physically score. They’d need some fluky kick or punt return, and they were already blessed with both in Week 10. Give me the Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Bears -3.5 Everyone is banking on the Bears regressing after narrowly beating Bengals, Giants, and Vikings. But people forget that winning NFL games is really hard, and the Bears keep doing it (an awesome coach hire in the offseason can do wonders). I don’t think Aaron Rodgers is suiting up for this game, but if he does, than I’d be terrified. Rodgers does not get two chances a year to beat up on Chicago like he did in the past, so watch out.

New England Patriots @ Cinncinatti Bengals (+7.5)

Bengals +7.5 I’m banking on Patriots taking there foot off of the pedal like a let down spot. Pats should still win, but they’re kind of due for a sleep walk. Ol’ Joe Flacco probably has one more shot with Burrow coming back. The Bengals have been competitive despite loosing. I like a big game for Flacco to help usher in Burrow’s return from IR.

New York Giants @ Detroit Lions(-10.5)

Lions -10.5 Lions are coming off a stinker against the Eagles. Dan Campbell loves to beat up on bad teams, and the Giants are complete mess right now. I hate picking these large numbers, but this week is rough.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Packers -6.5 Never was really a J.J. McCarthy believer, and I think the whole “QB whisperer” coach thing is a joke. A good coach certainly helps, but they’re not unlocking anything we don’t already know. Packers are that team everyone thinks is really good, but we’re still waiting to see it. I like them here in a division game to get the train back on the tracks.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chief (+3.5)

Colts -3.5 Disclaimer: I am a Colts Fan. The Colts despite their QB disaster in recent years, managed to beat the Chiefs with Jacoby Brissett (2019) and Matt Ryan (2022). Crazy right! The 2019 win was in arrowhead! Chiefs are essentially in an elimination game this week, so I think everyone is going to be betting on them. I am banking on everyone being a big dumb idiot. Lets go Colts! (I really hope Danny Jones is the guy)

Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans (+12.5)

Titans +12.5 Gross…. I know. Its a rule: if the spread is >10 and your a dog at home, I take that team. Its the NFL, teams do not get blown out at home as often as you may think. I will not be watching this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)

Cardinals +2.5 This is a rat line if I ever seen it. This line screams “Take the Jaguars!”, but I am going with my guy Brissett. They did pretty well last week, considering the hole they dug themselves into immediately. I don’t think they’re that disorganized that it will happen again.

Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders (-4)

Raiders -4. I am a Sanders hater. I thought he was kind of overhyped in college. I am banking on some costly turn overs by the Browns to set up the Raiders for some easy points.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (+4.5)

Eagles -4.5 All week in the news, you see Eagles chaos. Everyone will be betting the Cowboys. Did everyone forget that the Eagles are Super Bowl champs? They are really, really good. Eagles media loves to cause problems in the locker room and bash their own QB whenever possible. The Eagles are the Eagles and they should win this game, no problem.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Falcons +1.5 High key rivalry here that goes unnoticed by 80% of the country. Saints are really bad, but so are the Falcons. I for some reason still kind of believe in Cousins. I think Cousins is settled into his spot now that Penix is done for the year. Cousins will start captaining the ship by beating a divisional opponent in their house. Give me the Falcons, love them this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Buccaneers +6.5 I like the Rams to win it all this year, I think there the best team in the NFL. However, 6.5 seems like a lot, especially for a Bucs team thats pretty good themselves. I know the Bucs are dealing with injuries, but they have Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is a spiteful guy. I don’t think he had a bad time in LA with McVay, but I do think he would like to win against them. What competitor doesn’t like beating the team that let you walk?

Carolina Panthers @ San Fransisco 49ers (-6.5)

49ers -6.5 The Panthers winning these past weeks feels like a fever dream. Bryce Young threw for how many yards last week? 500? This is a public vs prep school matchup. I am betting on Young not throwing for another 400. 49ers are a more complete team, better coach, better QB, they just don’t have a ton of WRs. Kittle fills that receiving gap nice and Pearsall is back (Juszczyk ATTD got some nice juice 👀). I don’t know if there is an area where the Panthers are better then the 49ers.