Man, we are blessed! There was a point in the season where these games looked grim. Now, all three have playoff contentions. Below I am going to pick each game against the spread.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-3)

If Detriot’s offense was an engine, Jahmyr Gibbs is the oil the keeps it running. In Lions wins this season, Gibbs is averaging 114 rushing yards per game (YPG). In losses, that number drops to 37, which shows clear as day that the offense goes as Gibbs does. Gibbs is coming off a 200+ yard outing, and I expect him to keep the train rolling. The Packers have allowed 120 rushing YPG over its last 5 games. The softest part of the Packers Defense is right up the middle. That is exactly where Gibbs does the most damage. Expect him to break off a few chunk runs.

What worries me is the Lion’s offensive line. They’re banged up. The Lions have given up 14 sacks in their last five games, while the Packers have totaled 11. If Green Bay can pressure Goff into making quick decisions, they will have success. But, the Packers will still have to worry about the check down to Gibbs or Montgomery.

The Packers Offense has been just OK. Jordan Love is throwing for only about 160 yards a game. None of the Packers WRs really scare me, where Amon-Ra on the lions, is just phenomenal. The Lions secondary is getting healthier. The Lions know whats at stake here, I am going to stick with the Lions on this one. I trust their offense more then I trust the Packers Offense.

Official pick: Detroit Lions -3

Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys (+3)

Lets start with the trenches. The Cowboys have the advantage here, despite Chris Jones. Their run defense has been dominant, holding the Raiders and Eagles to just 27 and 63 rushing yards. Largely due to the addition of Quinn Williams. Before he arrived, Dallas was giving up 143 rushing yards per game. After, that number dropped to 45. He’s coming off a career high 8 pressures and should be huge in this game. Especially if Trey Smith is out for the Chiefs.

One thing I love in this game is the use of play action. Dallas has a reliable running game this season with Javonte Williams. A good run game opens up the play action. The Chiefs are 31st in the league against the play action. Dallas runs play action on 28.4 % of their drop backs and completing 81.4% of their passes (5th in the league). Another winner from this is Pickens and Lamb. They should benefit from a good running game and I can see both having great games.

The Cowboys secondary scares me. They are bottom of the league. They run zone 78% of their snaps and the Chiefs offense is notoriously good against the zone. The Cowboys defensive strength is up the middle, but that is where the Chiefs strength is. Oh, I forgot, the Chiefs are 1-4 away this year and the Cowboys are 3-1 at home. I think both offenses score a lot here, but I am going with the home dog.

Official Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Bengals rank near the bottom of the league against the run, allowing 156 rushing YPG. Lamar isn’t running or throwing well. He’s averaging only 18 rushing yards per game since his return and completing just 57.1% of his passes. I think he bounces back here, the Ravens are going to have to run the ball to win this game.

Chase is coming back from suspensions and is posed for a big game. Higgins will be out (concussion). The Ravens Defense is not the same D we saw earlier in the season. Since the Raven’s bye week, they rank 1st in EPA as a rushing defense and 6th in passing defense. Their only allowing a 26.6% conversion rate on third down. A big part of that defense is Kyle Hamilton. He didn’t practice Monday, but may play.

Burrow has historically had success against Baltimore, averaging 300 passing yards, two touchdowns, and a 104.8 passer rating in 9 meetings. This stat cancels out when you consider Lamar is 9-1 straight up against the Bengals. I don’t trust Burrow after a long break, just look at his Week 1 stat lines over the years.

Mark Andrews is posed to have a big day. The Bengals allowed 76 receptions for 962 yards and 13 TDs to TEs this year. He should have a bigger day than Zay Flowers, who will be matched up with DJ Turner.

I love Burrow being back, but I don’t know if I trust him against a Raven’s team that just rattled of 5 wins.

Official Pick: Baltimore Ravens -7