Category: Betting Tips

Tough Watch Thursday: Jets @ Patriots Parlay Picks & Predictions

Posted in Betting TipsTagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

Like most TNF games this year, this one will be a doozy. Double digit spreads are no fun, so we need some parlays and props to make this watch more enjoyable.

ATTD

Demario Douglas @ +420

Douglas has scored 2 first TDs of the game so far this year. Diggs should be taking a lot of the attention from the Jets secondary. I like Douglas to have a bounce back game where he caught 2 of his 2 targets for 34 yds against the Bucs.

Favorite Prop of the Night

Breece Hall Over 15.5 Rush attempts @ -122

Pats have the number 1 rushing defense at the moment. The Jets clearly are incapable of throwing the ball, especially with Wilson out. The Jets only weapon is Breece Hall, so they will have to use him. If we assume the Jets get 8 offensive drives (10 is the rough average but the Jets are brutal), that means Hall needs to run it 2 times per drive. I love those chances.

The Parlay

Hunter Henry ATTD

Breece Hall Over 16.5 Receiving Yards

Demario Douglas 2+ Receptions

K’Lavon Chaisson Over 0.5 Sacks

Parlayed @ +1545

The Jets defense does terrible against TEs this year. Henry has been a reliable end zone target this year. Breece Hall may not be able to run it but I can see him getting a couple check downs and if he can find space 16.5 seems easy. I like Douglas this game with Boutte out. Fields is going to get sacked, it’s just a matter of how many times. I like one of the Pats best rushers today getting one in Chaisson.

Bet responsibly and let’s get to the weekend.

MLB Season Win Total Betting Model: Pick #1 Detroit Tigers Over 83.5 Wins

Posted in Betting TipsTagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

At the time of writing this blog, FanDuel has the Detroit Tigers Regular Season Win Total Over/Under set at 83.5. A slight increase from last year (81.5). In 2024, the Detroit Tigers won a whopping 86 games, falling in the Divisional Series to the Cleveland Guardians. A major accomplishment for a team who was expected to win about 81 games. 

This year, I don’t think it’s any different. Clearly, the Tigers themselves are committed to winning, as they were in the running for free agent 3rd baseman Alex Bregman. Part of this dramatic increase resides in their pitching. My model has the Tigers projected to be Top 5 in pitching this year.

taken from @MLBNetwork on x.com (https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1891159354029531257/photo/1)

I shouldn’t have to, but if you’ve never heard about this guy, you need to. Tarik Skull. He’s coming off an AL Cy Young and Triple Crown season. For those who don’t know, the Triple Crown is when a pitcher leads the league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs. He’s a little bit of a nut, which is exactly what you want from a pitcher. Last year, they leaned on him heavily, and I am betting they will again this year. But this year with some extra support. 

If we look at free agency, they lost pretty much no body. Jack Flaherty returns, who went 7-5 with Detroit last season posting a 2.95 ERA (a slight improvement from his 3.58 ERA when he was on the Dodgers). Now, I don’t think we will get those numbers again, but I do think he will be a solid piece in the rotation. Another guy they added is Alex Cobb. He just got hurt and he’s stated to miss the beginning of the season with a hip injury. When he gets healthy, he should be another arm they can use on an already solid pitching crew. Reese Olson is another guy that I think is poised for a great season. Despite going 4-8 (22 appearances) last year, he had an ERA of 3.53, which isn’t too shabby for a 25-year-old. 

In terms of bats, this offseason they went out and got ex-Yankees 2nd baseman Gleyber Torres. He signed a prove-it deal after not hearing back from the Yankees. I like to think he’s a chip-on-the-shoulder type of guy. Last year, I thought he had a pretty decent season. Yankees fans may be a little upset that he never took the next “big step”. Torres really thrived when he was moved to lead off. As of now, he’s projected to be 2nd in the lineup. 

The batting is what worries me about the Tigers. They are below average and I do not see them making a major jump this year. However, I do think it’s more realistic that they can achieve a league average here. If they can bat at a league average, I think they pose for another post-season run. That’s why I am going with: Over 83.5 Wins for the Detroit Tigers