fantasy-football – NumbersandLines.com

Another Week and another set back in the Sleeper League. I dropped from T4 to T5. Lucky for me, the difference between me and 1st place is 1-2 good weeks.

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (+7.5)

Seahawks – 7.5 Falcons have called it quits. The ghost of Cousins is at QB. Seahawks are a clear favorite for the Super Bowl. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was contained last week, so expect a big bounce back game for him here. Coach Macdonald has this Defense buzzing, and there going to be all over Cousins.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

Steelers +5.5 Mike Tomlin game. In division. Lamar is 3-5 straight up against the Steelers. Barstool Big Cat has the best analysis for this team. Bet on them when you doubt them, and fade when everyone is expecting them. After last week’s performance, I expect a bounce back. Ravens best hope is to run the ball, but the Stealers Defense is limiting teams to under 100 rushing yards a game this season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

Bengals +5.5 I got burned by Burrow during Thanksgiving. He’s back and so good. Very cool to. This game is really hard for me. I think the Bills win, but it will be close. The Bengals Offense is alive, and I am not sure Allen has the weapons to keep up. Guys like James Cook and Keon Coleman are going to have to have big days. I can picture it know, Allen leading a 2 minute drive at the end of the game to get a last second field goal kick. The camera pans to Burrow looking disappointed, but still very cool.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

Browns -3.5 This game makes me want to puke. If your a red zone watcher, like me, than you will likely never see this game. I can’t believe that I am going to pick Sanders as a favorite, but I believe the Browns Defense is going to make some crazy plays. I think its more likely Cleveland D/ST gets a TD over Sanders throwing one. Titans are hopeless. Ward is going to get tormented by Myles Garrett.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

Jaguars -1.5 This kills me as a Colts fan, but they haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014. Thats over 10 years. The Wentz game (where they were -15.5 favorites) to get us in the playoffs still haunts me to this day. Colts are crashing, Jags are red hot. Kind of strange this line isn’t close to -3. Really suprised.

Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)

Vikings +1.5 9 is back in action this week. Both these teams are brutal. I am just going to go with the home team that has a better coach. If JJ has a good game, it has to be against this Defense. The Commanders secondary is not going to be able to cover Jefferson. Just throw it near him. They need to get him the ball.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+2.5)

Dolphins -2.5 Dolphins have been quietly winning a bunch of games in this stretch. All of them being bad teams, but so are the Jets. The Jets have been playing better in recent games. The locker room has clearly not given up. I would pick the Jets in this game if it was colder. You can look up the Tua cold temperature stats, but this game is going to be in the 40s. Side note: a loss for the Dolphins and they need to get booted from the “In the hunt” graphic. There no where near the hunt.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)

Buccaneers -8.5 I am going to label this as my “Baker Bounce Back” game. Bucs are quietly getting healthier. Earlier in the year, the Bucs killed the Saints in New Orleans 23-3. The Saints haven’t gotten any better.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5)

Broncos -7.5 Raiders are right up there with the Titans as the worst team in the league. There not even fun to watch. The Broncos has a legit Super Bowl caliber Defense. Expect Patrick Surtain to matchup with Bowers. I don’t see how the Raiders Offense thrives here. Give me the team cruising to the playoffs over the team crashing and burning.

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (+8.5)

Cardinals +8.5 Rams are Super Bowl favorites, but the Cardinals are a bit better then their record states. Brissett has thrown for 300+ yards in the past 3 weeks. Cardinals kept it close with the Jags and Bucs, both playoff teams. Panthers were able to pounce on the Rams last week. 8.5 is a lot of points here. Expect the Rams to win, but the Cardinals to keep it close.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Bears +6.5 Aaron Rodgers, the bogey man, isn’t in Green Bay anymore. Ben Johnson has completely changed the culture. It is hard to hope off the Bears train. The win against the Eagles surprised everyone, and clearly the book makers still think the Bears are pretenders. I like the Bears outright here. This team can really run the ball and they will have to with Rome out. The Bears TE, Loveland, should have plenty of targets, I like his receiving props this week.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Chiefs -3.5 Now its do or die for the Chiefs. The Colts could have easily beat the Texans last week. The Texans Offense scares maybe the Raiders. The Defense should scare James Harrison. Back against the wall, I don’t know how you don’t go with the Chiefs. Year after year they have shown that they are never out. If they loose this game, its over.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)

Chargers +3.5 This line is jarring, but it tells you that Herbert may not play. As of Saturday night, he has no been ruled out. Meanwhile, on the Eagles, Sirianni stated “drastic changes” to the Offense. Oh yeah, Jalen Carter casually had surgery on BOTH shoulders. I look at this game like two girls, one stable with a good job and the other a party girl that lives out of her van. I go with the stable girl every day of the week.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-3)

If Detriot’s offense was an engine, Jahmyr Gibbs is the oil the keeps it running. In Lions wins this season, Gibbs is averaging 114 rushing yards per game (YPG). In losses, that number drops to 37, which shows clear as day that the offense goes as Gibbs does. Gibbs is coming off a 200+ yard outing, and I expect him to keep the train rolling. The Packers have allowed 120 rushing YPG over its last 5 games. The softest part of the Packers Defense is right up the middle. That is exactly where Gibbs does the most damage. Expect him to break off a few chunk runs.

What worries me is the Lion’s offensive line. They’re banged up. The Lions have given up 14 sacks in their last five games, while the Packers have totaled 11. If Green Bay can pressure Goff into making quick decisions, they will have success. But, the Packers will still have to worry about the check down to Gibbs or Montgomery.

The Packers Offense has been just OK. Jordan Love is throwing for only about 160 yards a game. None of the Packers WRs really scare me, where Amon-Ra on the lions, is just phenomenal. The Lions secondary is getting healthier. The Lions know whats at stake here, I am going to stick with the Lions on this one. I trust their offense more then I trust the Packers Offense.

Official pick: Detroit Lions -3

Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys (+3)

Lets start with the trenches. The Cowboys have the advantage here, despite Chris Jones. Their run defense has been dominant, holding the Raiders and Eagles to just 27 and 63 rushing yards. Largely due to the addition of Quinn Williams. Before he arrived, Dallas was giving up 143 rushing yards per game. After, that number dropped to 45. He’s coming off a career high 8 pressures and should be huge in this game. Especially if Trey Smith is out for the Chiefs.

One thing I love in this game is the use of play action. Dallas has a reliable running game this season with Javonte Williams. A good run game opens up the play action. The Chiefs are 31st in the league against the play action. Dallas runs play action on 28.4 % of their drop backs and completing 81.4% of their passes (5th in the league). Another winner from this is Pickens and Lamb. They should benefit from a good running game and I can see both having great games.

The Cowboys secondary scares me. They are bottom of the league. They run zone 78% of their snaps and the Chiefs offense is notoriously good against the zone. The Cowboys defensive strength is up the middle, but that is where the Chiefs strength is. Oh, I forgot, the Chiefs are 1-4 away this year and the Cowboys are 3-1 at home. I think both offenses score a lot here, but I am going with the home dog.

Official Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Bengals rank near the bottom of the league against the run, allowing 156 rushing YPG. Lamar isn’t running or throwing well. He’s averaging only 18 rushing yards per game since his return and completing just 57.1% of his passes. I think he bounces back here, the Ravens are going to have to run the ball to win this game.

Chase is coming back from suspensions and is posed for a big game. Higgins will be out (concussion). The Ravens Defense is not the same D we saw earlier in the season. Since the Raven’s bye week, they rank 1st in EPA as a rushing defense and 6th in passing defense. Their only allowing a 26.6% conversion rate on third down. A big part of that defense is Kyle Hamilton. He didn’t practice Monday, but may play.

Burrow has historically had success against Baltimore, averaging 300 passing yards, two touchdowns, and a 104.8 passer rating in 9 meetings. This stat cancels out when you consider Lamar is 9-1 straight up against the Bengals. I don’t trust Burrow after a long break, just look at his Week 1 stat lines over the years.

Mark Andrews is posed to have a big day. The Bengals allowed 76 receptions for 962 yards and 13 TDs to TEs this year. He should have a bigger day than Zay Flowers, who will be matched up with DJ Turner.

I love Burrow being back, but I don’t know if I trust him against a Raven’s team that just rattled of 5 wins.

Official Pick: Baltimore Ravens -7

Tag: fantasy-football

NFL Week 14 Pick’em