Tag: football

NFL Week 14 Pick’em

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Another Week and another set back in the Sleeper League. I dropped from T4 to T5. Lucky for me, the difference between me and 1st place is 1-2 good weeks.

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (+7.5)

Seahawks – 7.5 Falcons have called it quits. The ghost of Cousins is at QB. Seahawks are a clear favorite for the Super Bowl. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was contained last week, so expect a big bounce back game for him here. Coach Macdonald has this Defense buzzing, and there going to be all over Cousins.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

Steelers +5.5 Mike Tomlin game. In division. Lamar is 3-5 straight up against the Steelers. Barstool Big Cat has the best analysis for this team. Bet on them when you doubt them, and fade when everyone is expecting them. After last week’s performance, I expect a bounce back. Ravens best hope is to run the ball, but the Stealers Defense is limiting teams to under 100 rushing yards a game this season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

Bengals +5.5 I got burned by Burrow during Thanksgiving. He’s back and so good. Very cool to. This game is really hard for me. I think the Bills win, but it will be close. The Bengals Offense is alive, and I am not sure Allen has the weapons to keep up. Guys like James Cook and Keon Coleman are going to have to have big days. I can picture it know, Allen leading a 2 minute drive at the end of the game to get a last second field goal kick. The camera pans to Burrow looking disappointed, but still very cool.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

Browns -3.5 This game makes me want to puke. If your a red zone watcher, like me, than you will likely never see this game. I can’t believe that I am going to pick Sanders as a favorite, but I believe the Browns Defense is going to make some crazy plays. I think its more likely Cleveland D/ST gets a TD over Sanders throwing one. Titans are hopeless. Ward is going to get tormented by Myles Garrett.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

Jaguars -1.5 This kills me as a Colts fan, but they haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014. Thats over 10 years. The Wentz game (where they were -15.5 favorites) to get us in the playoffs still haunts me to this day. Colts are crashing, Jags are red hot. Kind of strange this line isn’t close to -3. Really suprised.

Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)

Vikings +1.5 9 is back in action this week. Both these teams are brutal. I am just going to go with the home team that has a better coach. If JJ has a good game, it has to be against this Defense. The Commanders secondary is not going to be able to cover Jefferson. Just throw it near him. They need to get him the ball.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+2.5)

Dolphins -2.5 Dolphins have been quietly winning a bunch of games in this stretch. All of them being bad teams, but so are the Jets. The Jets have been playing better in recent games. The locker room has clearly not given up. I would pick the Jets in this game if it was colder. You can look up the Tua cold temperature stats, but this game is going to be in the 40s. Side note: a loss for the Dolphins and they need to get booted from the “In the hunt” graphic. There no where near the hunt.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)

Buccaneers -8.5 I am going to label this as my “Baker Bounce Back” game. Bucs are quietly getting healthier. Earlier in the year, the Bucs killed the Saints in New Orleans 23-3. The Saints haven’t gotten any better.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5)

Broncos -7.5 Raiders are right up there with the Titans as the worst team in the league. There not even fun to watch. The Broncos has a legit Super Bowl caliber Defense. Expect Patrick Surtain to matchup with Bowers. I don’t see how the Raiders Offense thrives here. Give me the team cruising to the playoffs over the team crashing and burning.

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (+8.5)

Cardinals +8.5 Rams are Super Bowl favorites, but the Cardinals are a bit better then their record states. Brissett has thrown for 300+ yards in the past 3 weeks. Cardinals kept it close with the Jags and Bucs, both playoff teams. Panthers were able to pounce on the Rams last week. 8.5 is a lot of points here. Expect the Rams to win, but the Cardinals to keep it close.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Bears +6.5 Aaron Rodgers, the bogey man, isn’t in Green Bay anymore. Ben Johnson has completely changed the culture. It is hard to hope off the Bears train. The win against the Eagles surprised everyone, and clearly the book makers still think the Bears are pretenders. I like the Bears outright here. This team can really run the ball and they will have to with Rome out. The Bears TE, Loveland, should have plenty of targets, I like his receiving props this week.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Chiefs -3.5 Now its do or die for the Chiefs. The Colts could have easily beat the Texans last week. The Texans Offense scares maybe the Raiders. The Defense should scare James Harrison. Back against the wall, I don’t know how you don’t go with the Chiefs. Year after year they have shown that they are never out. If they loose this game, its over.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)

Chargers +3.5 This line is jarring, but it tells you that Herbert may not play. As of Saturday night, he has no been ruled out. Meanwhile, on the Eagles, Sirianni stated “drastic changes” to the Offense. Oh yeah, Jalen Carter casually had surgery on BOTH shoulders. I look at this game like two girls, one stable with a good job and the other a party girl that lives out of her van. I go with the stable girl every day of the week.

No NFL player has ever lead the league in Combined Tackles and won a Super Bowl in the same year (since 1979)

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When you go to the ESPN NFL stats page, your greeted by Defensive Leaders and a list of the players with the most total tackles.

Image taken from https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats

Generally, when a player has a lot of tackles, that means the Defense is on the field a lot. Its like pitch count in baseball, Ideally, you want your pitcher to throw 3 pitches and get 3 outs. Ideally, for an NFL defense you would want to make 3 tackles and force a punt. Its a weird stat where you would think, lower the number, the better. But instead, Defensive leaders are often related to the Total Tackle leader. Which may not be a good thing …..

This may surprise you, but: No player has ever lead the league in Combined Tackles and won a Super Bowl in the same year (At least until 1979).

Going back to 1979, if you look at the number of games the leading tackler for each year won, it may be suprising to some.

The fewest regular season wins to win a Super Bowl is 9. As you can in the chart above, quite a lot of the league leading tacklers were parts of terrible teams.

I find it quite remarkable that you have a number of teams that won 10, 11, 12, and even 14 games and still none won a Super Bowl. If I told you that your team was guaranteed to win at least 10 games in the regular season for 12 straight years and you didn’t win one Super Bowl, you would probably be disappointed.

In reality, if you have the league leading tackler than your probably not on a very good team because your defense is stuck on the field. However, what this stat does tell you is that there is a really good player on a bad defense and that should still be celebrated.

How the hell do you win 14 games and not win the Super Bowl?

What if I told you that the New England Patriots won 14 games in the regular season and were defeated by ….. wait for it ….. the New York Jets in the Divisional Round. And that team was lead by …. wait for it …. Mark Sanchez

In case you didn’t know what Sanchez has been up to. Not good.

My personal Tackling DAWG

Jessie Tuggle lead the league 4 years in tackles. 3 of those were in a row from 1990-1992. The man amassed 1805 tackles in a 14 year carrier. Holy crap! That is a lot, a lot of contact. What makes him even more of a dog is that he went undrafted.

Recommend a watch if your like me and weren’t born yet.

Next ….

I compilled the Top 25 Tacklers for every season dating back to 2000. The data may be surprising ….

2025 NFL Thanksgiving Games: Picks and Previews

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Man, we are blessed! There was a point in the season where these games looked grim. Now, all three have playoff contentions. Below I am going to pick each game against the spread.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-3)

If Detriot’s offense was an engine, Jahmyr Gibbs is the oil the keeps it running. In Lions wins this season, Gibbs is averaging 114 rushing yards per game (YPG). In losses, that number drops to 37, which shows clear as day that the offense goes as Gibbs does. Gibbs is coming off a 200+ yard outing, and I expect him to keep the train rolling. The Packers have allowed 120 rushing YPG over its last 5 games. The softest part of the Packers Defense is right up the middle. That is exactly where Gibbs does the most damage. Expect him to break off a few chunk runs.

What worries me is the Lion’s offensive line. They’re banged up. The Lions have given up 14 sacks in their last five games, while the Packers have totaled 11. If Green Bay can pressure Goff into making quick decisions, they will have success. But, the Packers will still have to worry about the check down to Gibbs or Montgomery.

The Packers Offense has been just OK. Jordan Love is throwing for only about 160 yards a game. None of the Packers WRs really scare me, where Amon-Ra on the lions, is just phenomenal. The Lions secondary is getting healthier. The Lions know whats at stake here, I am going to stick with the Lions on this one. I trust their offense more then I trust the Packers Offense.

Official pick: Detroit Lions -3

Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys (+3)

Lets start with the trenches. The Cowboys have the advantage here, despite Chris Jones. Their run defense has been dominant, holding the Raiders and Eagles to just 27 and 63 rushing yards. Largely due to the addition of Quinn Williams. Before he arrived, Dallas was giving up 143 rushing yards per game. After, that number dropped to 45. He’s coming off a career high 8 pressures and should be huge in this game. Especially if Trey Smith is out for the Chiefs.

One thing I love in this game is the use of play action. Dallas has a reliable running game this season with Javonte Williams. A good run game opens up the play action. The Chiefs are 31st in the league against the play action. Dallas runs play action on 28.4 % of their drop backs and completing 81.4% of their passes (5th in the league). Another winner from this is Pickens and Lamb. They should benefit from a good running game and I can see both having great games.

The Cowboys secondary scares me. They are bottom of the league. They run zone 78% of their snaps and the Chiefs offense is notoriously good against the zone. The Cowboys defensive strength is up the middle, but that is where the Chiefs strength is. Oh, I forgot, the Chiefs are 1-4 away this year and the Cowboys are 3-1 at home. I think both offenses score a lot here, but I am going with the home dog.

Official Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Bengals rank near the bottom of the league against the run, allowing 156 rushing YPG. Lamar isn’t running or throwing well. He’s averaging only 18 rushing yards per game since his return and completing just 57.1% of his passes. I think he bounces back here, the Ravens are going to have to run the ball to win this game.

Chase is coming back from suspensions and is posed for a big game. Higgins will be out (concussion). The Ravens Defense is not the same D we saw earlier in the season. Since the Raven’s bye week, they rank 1st in EPA as a rushing defense and 6th in passing defense. Their only allowing a 26.6% conversion rate on third down. A big part of that defense is Kyle Hamilton. He didn’t practice Monday, but may play.

Burrow has historically had success against Baltimore, averaging 300 passing yards, two touchdowns, and a 104.8 passer rating in 9 meetings. This stat cancels out when you consider Lamar is 9-1 straight up against the Bengals. I don’t trust Burrow after a long break, just look at his Week 1 stat lines over the years.

Mark Andrews is posed to have a big day. The Bengals allowed 76 receptions for 962 yards and 13 TDs to TEs this year. He should have a bigger day than Zay Flowers, who will be matched up with DJ Turner.

I love Burrow being back, but I don’t know if I trust him against a Raven’s team that just rattled of 5 wins.

Official Pick: Baltimore Ravens -7

Recap: NFL Week 12 Pick’em

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Not ideal to go below .500 in the first week you start blogging your picks. It hurts even more when you drop a spot in the season rankings. The real winner this week was Vegas , the lines were spot on (How do they do it??). Three! of my losses were within 0.5 points! Three points is the difference between going 6–8 and 9–5.

My Favorite thing I got right

Green Bay -6.5 I was dead right about 9. J.J. isn’t ready and I don’t know if he ever will be. Could the Vikings call their ex girlfriend (Danny Jones) this offseason and ask for forgiveness? They may certainly think about it if J.J. plays like this

I’m still not convinced the Packers are at that contender level, but there certainly a good team.

My Favorite thing I got wrong

Bucs +6.5 The Rams really are the best team in the league and I don’t think its close at the moment. Baker didn’t have a great game and I think he is hurt. The only upside was that this game was over in the first quarter so you didn’t have to watch the rest of the game.

Next Week …

This week is special. Thanksgiving week, we boost the weekly pot in the Sleeper league a little extra. I could use a top 3 as I am down overall in the weekly contests. Let’s get a win.

NFL Week 12 Pick’em

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If you’re like me and couldn’t care less about fantasy football, you probably prefer survivor pools and pick’em leagues. At the time of writing this, I’m sitting in the top three in a league of 39 people with a record of 88–77. I’m going to start posting my picks here, and hopefully I can help some of you along the way.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (+2.5)

Bills -2.5 Starting off hot, I got this one wrong. I am sick of convincing myself the Bills are good. They’re not. Josh Allen is just elite.

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)

Ravens -13.5 I generally go by the rule that if the spread is larger than 10, I go with the favorite. However, Ravens are at home, and I don’t know if the Jets can physically score. They’d need some fluky kick or punt return, and they were already blessed with both in Week 10. Give me the Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Bears -3.5 Everyone is banking on the Bears regressing after narrowly beating Bengals, Giants, and Vikings. But people forget that winning NFL games is really hard, and the Bears keep doing it (an awesome coach hire in the offseason can do wonders). I don’t think Aaron Rodgers is suiting up for this game, but if he does, than I’d be terrified. Rodgers does not get two chances a year to beat up on Chicago like he did in the past, so watch out.

New England Patriots @ Cinncinatti Bengals (+7.5)

Bengals +7.5 I’m banking on Patriots taking there foot off of the pedal like a let down spot. Pats should still win, but they’re kind of due for a sleep walk. Ol’ Joe Flacco probably has one more shot with Burrow coming back. The Bengals have been competitive despite loosing. I like a big game for Flacco to help usher in Burrow’s return from IR.

New York Giants @ Detroit Lions(-10.5)

Lions -10.5 Lions are coming off a stinker against the Eagles. Dan Campbell loves to beat up on bad teams, and the Giants are complete mess right now. I hate picking these large numbers, but this week is rough.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Packers -6.5 Never was really a J.J. McCarthy believer, and I think the whole “QB whisperer” coach thing is a joke. A good coach certainly helps, but they’re not unlocking anything we don’t already know. Packers are that team everyone thinks is really good, but we’re still waiting to see it. I like them here in a division game to get the train back on the tracks.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chief (+3.5)

Colts -3.5 Disclaimer: I am a Colts Fan. The Colts despite their QB disaster in recent years, managed to beat the Chiefs with Jacoby Brissett (2019) and Matt Ryan (2022). Crazy right! The 2019 win was in arrowhead! Chiefs are essentially in an elimination game this week, so I think everyone is going to be betting on them. I am banking on everyone being a big dumb idiot. Lets go Colts! (I really hope Danny Jones is the guy)

Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans (+12.5)

Titans +12.5 Gross…. I know. Its a rule: if the spread is >10 and your a dog at home, I take that team. Its the NFL, teams do not get blown out at home as often as you may think. I will not be watching this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)

Cardinals +2.5 This is a rat line if I ever seen it. This line screams “Take the Jaguars!”, but I am going with my guy Brissett. They did pretty well last week, considering the hole they dug themselves into immediately. I don’t think they’re that disorganized that it will happen again.

Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders (-4)

Raiders -4. I am a Sanders hater. I thought he was kind of overhyped in college. I am banking on some costly turn overs by the Browns to set up the Raiders for some easy points.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (+4.5)

Eagles -4.5 All week in the news, you see Eagles chaos. Everyone will be betting the Cowboys. Did everyone forget that the Eagles are Super Bowl champs? They are really, really good. Eagles media loves to cause problems in the locker room and bash their own QB whenever possible. The Eagles are the Eagles and they should win this game, no problem.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Falcons +1.5 High key rivalry here that goes unnoticed by 80% of the country. Saints are really bad, but so are the Falcons. I for some reason still kind of believe in Cousins. I think Cousins is settled into his spot now that Penix is done for the year. Cousins will start captaining the ship by beating a divisional opponent in their house. Give me the Falcons, love them this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Buccaneers +6.5 I like the Rams to win it all this year, I think there the best team in the NFL. However, 6.5 seems like a lot, especially for a Bucs team thats pretty good themselves. I know the Bucs are dealing with injuries, but they have Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is a spiteful guy. I don’t think he had a bad time in LA with McVay, but I do think he would like to win against them. What competitor doesn’t like beating the team that let you walk?

Carolina Panthers @ San Fransisco 49ers (-6.5)

49ers -6.5 The Panthers winning these past weeks feels like a fever dream. Bryce Young threw for how many yards last week? 500? This is a public vs prep school matchup. I am betting on Young not throwing for another 400. 49ers are a more complete team, better coach, better QB, they just don’t have a ton of WRs. Kittle fills that receiving gap nice and Pearsall is back (Juszczyk ATTD got some nice juice 👀). I don’t know if there is an area where the Panthers are better then the 49ers.

Tough Watch Thursday: Jets @ Patriots Parlay Picks & Predictions

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Like most TNF games this year, this one will be a doozy. Double digit spreads are no fun, so we need some parlays and props to make this watch more enjoyable.

ATTD

Demario Douglas @ +420

Douglas has scored 2 first TDs of the game so far this year. Diggs should be taking a lot of the attention from the Jets secondary. I like Douglas to have a bounce back game where he caught 2 of his 2 targets for 34 yds against the Bucs.

Favorite Prop of the Night

Breece Hall Over 15.5 Rush attempts @ -122

Pats have the number 1 rushing defense at the moment. The Jets clearly are incapable of throwing the ball, especially with Wilson out. The Jets only weapon is Breece Hall, so they will have to use him. If we assume the Jets get 8 offensive drives (10 is the rough average but the Jets are brutal), that means Hall needs to run it 2 times per drive. I love those chances.

The Parlay

Hunter Henry ATTD

Breece Hall Over 16.5 Receiving Yards

Demario Douglas 2+ Receptions

K’Lavon Chaisson Over 0.5 Sacks

Parlayed @ +1545

The Jets defense does terrible against TEs this year. Henry has been a reliable end zone target this year. Breece Hall may not be able to run it but I can see him getting a couple check downs and if he can find space 16.5 seems easy. I like Douglas this game with Boutte out. Fields is going to get sacked, it’s just a matter of how many times. I like one of the Pats best rushers today getting one in Chaisson.

Bet responsibly and let’s get to the weekend.

Welcome to Numbers and Lines

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Figured it would be best to start by explaining what this blog is all about. I’ll cut straight to the chase, this blog is all about sports and gambling. In today’s world, there are about a billion and a half sports podcasts, TikToks, YouTube videos, yotta yotta. No one wants to hear or see me talk about sports (I know because my fiancé doesn’t respond when I ask her about the chances the Raiders win the Super Bowl with Geno Smith). But I thought to myself, what if people would want to read what I want to write … so I started this blog.

This blog could simply be the rambling of a mad man with no where to fire off his sport takes. Who knows, this whole thing could last 3-4 blogs and than I never touch it again. It something I always wanted to try. I am turning 30 soon (so my life is basically half over) and I would hate myself if I never gave it a go. The truth is, I don’t know what this blog is going to be about.

When pondering where to start my blogging journey, baseball was the first sport that came to mind. Maybe it’s the excitement from the recent postseason, but for some reason, I find myself looking forward to the upcoming baseball season more than ever. Which is strange because, to be honest, baseball is probably the sport I care the least about.

Growing up in New Jersey, I constantly heard names like Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera on the radio. It was a great time to be a baseball fan—especially a Yankees fan. But like many of you, my love for the game faded over the years. Eventually, I barely paid attention until the playoffs.

This video still gives me the chills (sorry Virigina Tech, Enter Sandman belongs to Mariano Rivera)

So, how do I get back into baseball? Simple … by gambling. Betting makes games more interesting, no doubt. But with 30 teams playing 162 games each, betting every game would be bad, really really bad. Instead, I’ve found more enjoyment in betting on season win totals. By picking a few teams to root for (or against, theres nothing like a good hate watch), I stay engaged throughout the season without burning through my bankroll.

By day, I’m a scientist. I solve complex problems for a living, which inspired me to get a PhD in Chemistry. A big part of my job is analyzing large datasets, and gambling—at least if you want to do it successfully—requires a similar approach. So, I started asking myself: Which teams will win or lose more games than Vegas predicts? 

After countless nights on the couch with a laptop on my chest, the model was finished. And after some backtesting, I found that it hits at a rate of 56%. In theory, that’s profitable. I was proud of this number because it’s reasonable. You’ll often see people on X (formerly Twitter) claiming their model hits at 70%—that’s nonsense. Sportsbooks are too sharp for anyone to have that kind of edge. And even if you did, they’d limit you before you could make any real money. A 56% win rate means that, over time, I should turn a profit. And if I know I’m getting paid at the end of every MLB season, why wouldn’t I look forward to it?

Over the next few blogs, I’ll be previewing some MLB season win totals. There’s analytics behind it, of course, but I won’t just throw a bunch of numbers at you. Let’s be honest—no one wants to read a data dump with no context. Instead, I’ll break things down in a way that makes sense and (hopefully) keeps you entertained.

See you around,

CDust

Give me a follow on X (the everything app) @CDustSports