Like most TNF games this year, this one will be a doozy. Double digit spreads are no fun, so we need some parlays and props to make this watch more enjoyable.
ATTD
Demario Douglas @ +420
Douglas has scored 2 first TDs of the game so far this year. Diggs should be taking a lot of the attention from the Jets secondary. I like Douglas to have a bounce back game where he caught 2 of his 2 targets for 34 yds against the Bucs.
Favorite Prop of the Night
Breece Hall Over 15.5 Rush attempts @ -122
Pats have the number 1 rushing defense at the moment. The Jets clearly are incapable of throwing the ball, especially with Wilson out. The Jets only weapon is Breece Hall, so they will have to use him. If we assume the Jets get 8 offensive drives (10 is the rough average but the Jets are brutal), that means Hall needs to run it 2 times per drive. I love those chances.
The Parlay
Hunter Henry ATTD
Breece Hall Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
Demario Douglas 2+ Receptions
K’Lavon Chaisson Over 0.5 Sacks
Parlayed @ +1545
The Jets defense does terrible against TEs this year. Henry has been a reliable end zone target this year. Breece Hall may not be able to run it but I can see him getting a couple check downs and if he can find space 16.5 seems easy. I like Douglas this game with Boutte out. Fields is going to get sacked, it’s just a matter of how many times. I like one of the Pats best rushers today getting one in Chaisson.
Figured it would be best to start by explaining what this blog is all about. I’ll cut straight to the chase, this blog is all about sports and gambling. In today’s world, there are about a billion and a half sports podcasts, TikToks, YouTube videos, yotta yotta. No one wants to hear or see me talk about sports (I know because my fiancé doesn’t respond when I ask her about the chances the Raiders win the Super Bowl with Geno Smith). But I thought to myself, what if people would want to read what I want to write … so I started this blog.
This blog could simply be the rambling of a mad man with no where to fire off his sport takes. Who knows, this whole thing could last 3-4 blogs and than I never touch it again. It something I always wanted to try. I am turning 30 soon (so my life is basically half over) and I would hate myself if I never gave it a go. The truth is, I don’t know what this blog is going to be about.
When pondering where to start my blogging journey, baseball was the first sport that came to mind. Maybe it’s the excitement from the recent postseason, but for some reason, I find myself looking forward to the upcoming baseball season more than ever. Which is strange because, to be honest, baseball is probably the sport I care the least about.
Growing up in New Jersey, I constantly heard names like Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera on the radio. It was a great time to be a baseball fan—especially a Yankees fan. But like many of you, my love for the game faded over the years. Eventually, I barely paid attention until the playoffs.
This video still gives me the chills (sorry Virigina Tech, Enter Sandman belongs to Mariano Rivera)
So, how do I get back into baseball? Simple … by gambling. Betting makes games more interesting, no doubt. But with 30 teams playing 162 games each, betting every game would be bad, really really bad. Instead, I’ve found more enjoyment in betting on season win totals. By picking a few teams to root for (or against, theres nothing like a good hate watch), I stay engaged throughout the season without burning through my bankroll.
By day, I’m a scientist. I solve complex problems for a living, which inspired me to get a PhD in Chemistry. A big part of my job is analyzing large datasets, and gambling—at least if you want to do it successfully—requires a similar approach. So, I started asking myself: Which teams will win or lose more games than Vegas predicts?
After countless nights on the couch with a laptop on my chest, the model was finished. And after some backtesting, I found that it hits at a rate of 56%. In theory, that’s profitable. I was proud of this number because it’s reasonable. You’ll often see people on X (formerly Twitter) claiming their model hits at 70%—that’s nonsense. Sportsbooks are too sharp for anyone to have that kind of edge. And even if you did, they’d limit you before you could make any real money. A 56% win rate means that, over time, I should turn a profit. And if I know I’m getting paid at the end of every MLB season, why wouldn’t I look forward to it?
Over the next few blogs, I’ll be previewing some MLB season win totals. There’s analytics behind it, of course, but I won’t just throw a bunch of numbers at you. Let’s be honest—no one wants to read a data dump with no context. Instead, I’ll break things down in a way that makes sense and (hopefully) keeps you entertained.
See you around,
CDust
Give me a follow on X (the everything app) @CDustSports
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