At the time of writing this blog, FanDuel has the Detroit Tigers Regular Season Win Total Over/Under set at 83.5. A slight increase from last year (81.5). In 2024, the Detroit Tigers won a whopping 86 games, falling in the Divisional Series to the Cleveland Guardians. A major accomplishment for a team who was expected to win about 81 games.
This year, I don’t think it’s any different. Clearly, the Tigers themselves are committed to winning, as they were in the running for free agent 3rd baseman Alex Bregman. Part of this dramatic increase resides in their pitching. My model has the Tigers projected to be Top 5 in pitching this year.
taken from @MLBNetwork on x.com (https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1891159354029531257/photo/1)
I shouldn’t have to, but if you’ve never heard about this guy, you need to. Tarik Skull. He’s coming off an AL Cy Young and Triple Crown season. For those who don’t know, the Triple Crown is when a pitcher leads the league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs. He’s a little bit of a nut, which is exactly what you want from a pitcher. Last year, they leaned on him heavily, and I am betting they will again this year. But this year with some extra support.
If we look at free agency, they lost pretty much no body. Jack Flaherty returns, who went 7-5 with Detroit last season posting a 2.95 ERA (a slight improvement from his 3.58 ERA when he was on the Dodgers). Now, I don’t think we will get those numbers again, but I do think he will be a solid piece in the rotation. Another guy they added is Alex Cobb. He just got hurt and he’s stated to miss the beginning of the season with a hip injury. When he gets healthy, he should be another arm they can use on an already solid pitching crew. Reese Olson is another guy that I think is poised for a great season. Despite going 4-8 (22 appearances) last year, he had an ERA of 3.53, which isn’t too shabby for a 25-year-old.
In terms of bats, this offseason they went out and got ex-Yankees 2nd baseman Gleyber Torres. He signed a prove-it deal after not hearing back from the Yankees. I like to think he’s a chip-on-the-shoulder type of guy. Last year, I thought he had a pretty decent season. Yankees fans may be a little upset that he never took the next “big step”. Torres really thrived when he was moved to lead off. As of now, he’s projected to be 2nd in the lineup.
The batting is what worries me about the Tigers. They are below average and I do not see them making a major jump this year. However, I do think it’s more realistic that they can achieve a league average here. If they can bat at a league average, I think they pose for another post-season run. That’s why I am going with: Over 83.5 Wins for the Detroit Tigers
NumbersandLines.com 