Figured it would be best to start by explaining what this blog is all about. I’ll cut straight to the chase, this blog is all about sports and gambling. In today’s world, there are about a billion and a half sports podcasts, TikToks, YouTube videos, yotta yotta. No one wants to hear or see me talk about sports (I know because my fiancé doesn’t respond when I ask her about the chances the Raiders win the Super Bowl with Geno Smith). But I thought to myself, what if people would want to read what I want to write … so I started this blog.
This blog could simply be the rambling of a mad man with no where to fire off his sport takes. Who knows, this whole thing could last 3-4 blogs and than I never touch it again. It something I always wanted to try. I am turning 30 soon (so my life is basically half over) and I would hate myself if I never gave it a go. The truth is, I don’t know what this blog is going to be about.
When pondering where to start my blogging journey, baseball was the first sport that came to mind. Maybe it’s the excitement from the recent postseason, but for some reason, I find myself looking forward to the upcoming baseball season more than ever. Which is strange because, to be honest, baseball is probably the sport I care the least about.
Growing up in New Jersey, I constantly heard names like Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera on the radio. It was a great time to be a baseball fan—especially a Yankees fan. But like many of you, my love for the game faded over the years. Eventually, I barely paid attention until the playoffs.
This video still gives me the chills (sorry Virigina Tech, Enter Sandman belongs to Mariano Rivera)
So, how do I get back into baseball? Simple … by gambling. Betting makes games more interesting, no doubt. But with 30 teams playing 162 games each, betting every game would be bad, really really bad. Instead, I’ve found more enjoyment in betting on season win totals. By picking a few teams to root for (or against, theres nothing like a good hate watch), I stay engaged throughout the season without burning through my bankroll.
By day, I’m a scientist. I solve complex problems for a living, which inspired me to get a PhD in Chemistry. A big part of my job is analyzing large datasets, and gambling—at least if you want to do it successfully—requires a similar approach. So, I started asking myself: Which teams will win or lose more games than Vegas predicts?
After countless nights on the couch with a laptop on my chest, the model was finished. And after some backtesting, I found that it hits at a rate of 56%. In theory, that’s profitable. I was proud of this number because it’s reasonable. You’ll often see people on X (formerly Twitter) claiming their model hits at 70%—that’s nonsense. Sportsbooks are too sharp for anyone to have that kind of edge. And even if you did, they’d limit you before you could make any real money. A 56% win rate means that, over time, I should turn a profit. And if I know I’m getting paid at the end of every MLB season, why wouldn’t I look forward to it?
Over the next few blogs, I’ll be previewing some MLB season win totals. There’s analytics behind it, of course, but I won’t just throw a bunch of numbers at you. Let’s be honest—no one wants to read a data dump with no context. Instead, I’ll break things down in a way that makes sense and (hopefully) keeps you entertained.
See you around,
CDust
Give me a follow on X (the everything app) @CDustSports
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